Why he’ll win – Pity. The guy is practically begging for the award. If this doesn’t work next year expect him to put on a wig and take whatever part Meryl Streep turns down.
Why he’ll lose – If he was so great an actor he could at least “act” like he wasn’t an Oscar grubber.
Why he’ll win – He’s pulled the child of every Oscar voter out of a burning building.
Why he’ll lose – To be nominated for a movie no one saw truly is an honor. And I think he knows and appreciates that. Unlike Will Smith, I don’t think he’ll dissolve into tears when he loses.
Why he’ll win – He consistently turns in great performances. He has the blessing of the twin Godfathers of Hollywood – Spielberg and Scorsese.
Why he’ll lose – People still think of him as a semi-regular on GROWING PAINS.
Why he’ll win – An amazing performance and it’s time this under-appreciated fine actor finally gets his due.
Why he’ll lose – The Academy is afraid if he wins Will Smith will kill himself.
Why he’ll lose – A very large “ick” factor in the character he played in VENUS.
Why she’ll win – She always wins.
Why she’ll lose – Helen Mirren. And there’s always the next 26 times.
Why she’ll win – She gave the performance of the year. And showed incredible courage by making herself actually LOOK like Queen Elizabeth. She did everything but sing “And I’m telling you…I’m not going.”
Why she’ll win – The voters are all teenage boys.
Why she’ll lose – Helen Mirren. Meryl Streep. Judi Dench. Kate Winslet.
Why she’ll win – Best performance of her already Oscar recognized career. Best crazed stalker since Kathy Bates in MISERY, and that’s what all actors strive for.
Why she’ll lose – Helen Mirren. Some voters may be put off by her stalking. Maybe if she stalked Peter O’Toole both would win.
Why she’ll win – Enough voters will say, “Jesus, if Kim Basinger has one, Kate Winslet certainly deserves one.”
Why she’ll lose – Helen Mirren. And she’ll eventually win for a lesser role but it will be a make-good for this one. Y’know, like Paul Newman finally won for the COLOR OF MONEY for Godsakes.
My yearly Oscar review follow shortly after the ceremony unless I fall asleep during it.