LITTLE MISS SUNSHINE
Why it will win -- It’s daring. Imagine, a comedy without Will Ferrell. It’s the Cinderella story of the season and the only nominee you can watch without wanting to kill yourself.
Why it won’t win – it’s not “important”. Spielberg is still crying that SHAKESPEARE IN LOVE beat SAVING PRIVATE RYAN. Wait’ll you see all the bad LITTLE MISS SUNSHINE clones the TV networks are currently developing. One grandfather is wackier than the next. The movie will be appreciated much more in a year. But it’ll be too late.
Why it will win – CRASH meets the AMAZING RACE. Lots of scope and intricate stories. Oscar loves what he can’t follow. Makes him seem “deep”. And it’s a “cause” movie.
Why it won’t win – Not sure it’s the right “cause”. Plus, a large number of people despise it. That’s generally not good.
LETTERS FROM IWO JIMA
Why it will win – Clint Eastwood could direct RENO 911 and it would get nominated. World War II is still hot. Politically correct. A Hollywood make-good for PEARL HARBOR.
Why it won’t win – Only seven people have seen it. And three of them thought they were going to see LETTERS FROM A KILLER starring Patrick Swayze and Gia Carides.
Why it will win -- It’s Scorsese’s year. Great to see all those big stars together in a movie that’s not OCEANS WHATEVER.
Why it won’t win -- GOODFELLAS it ain’t, and that didn’t win. Not great to see all those big stars shot to death in a movie that’s not OCEANS WHATEVER.
Why it will win – Thoroughly engrossing, pitch perfect performances, and name me a single filmgoer who isn’t completely obsessed with the Queen of England?
Why it won’t win – Some voters may perceive it as just another mother-in-law from hell flick. Others think it’s a downer and question whether Princess Diana had to die.
So what movie do I think should win Best Picture?
Tomorrow: Best actor and actress handi-capping. Hint -- don't put a lot of money down on Penelope Cruz.